Spain is expecting a 23% increase in olive oil production for the 2026/2027 season.
While the prospect of a more abundant harvest may appear positive, falling producer prices and substantial existing stocks have prompted the government to establish a mechanism for temporarily withdrawing olive oil from the market. The decision raises questions about market stability, competition and the long-term interests of the sector.
OLEOLOGIST | News | 30 October 2026
By Estefano Onatrac
A promising harvest with economic consequences
Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, is entering the 2026/2027 marketing season with expectations of a substantial increase in production.
According to the first official forecast published by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) on 1 October 2026, national olive oil production is expected to reach 1,602,596 tonnes, approximately 23% more than in the previous season.
Andalusia remains the centre of Spanish olive oil production, with an estimated 1,261,200 tonnes, representing almost 79% of the national total. Other regions present a more varied picture, with production expected to increase in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura but decline in Catalonia, Aragón and Murcia.
The favourable spring conditions of relatively mild temperatures and abundant rainfall contributed to flowering and fruit development. Nevertheless, the figures remain preliminary. Weather conditions, the state of the olives and final oil yields will determine actual production.
A larger harvest, however, does not necessarily translate into higher earnings for producers.
In a market where prices are influenced by production volumes, available stocks, consumption and international trade, a substantial increase in supply can place additional pressure on prices at origin.
This is particularly relevant for producers whose cultivation and harvesting costs leave limited room to absorb falling prices.
Nearly two million tonnes of potential supply
The production forecast becomes more significant when combined with the stocks carried over from the previous season.
According to figures published by MAPA on 30 October, Spain entered the new marketing season with 357,040 tonnes of olive oil in storage, approximately 23.3% more than a year earlier.
Adding these stocks to the projected harvest produces a combined figure of approximately 1.96 million tonnes, before taking imports into account.
This represents potential supply rather than confirmed production or the quantity immediately available for sale.
Nevertheless, the combination of higher stocks and a potentially abundant harvest explains the growing concern among agricultural organisations.
For many producers, the central issue is not whether Spain can produce more olive oil, but whether the market can absorb additional volumes at prices that support economically viable production.
Spain establishes a mechanism for market intervention
On 30 October 2026, the Spanish government published Order APA/1145/2026 in the Official State Gazette (BOE), establishing the conditions for a possible temporary withdrawal of olive oil from the market during the 2026/2027 season.
The order enters into force on 31 October.
The measure is based on Royal Decree 84/2021 and Article 167a of EU Regulation 1308/2013, which permit producing Member States to establish marketing rules intended to improve and stabilise the olive oil market.
The intervention is conditional.
Under the new order, withdrawal can be activated if opening stocks combined with estimated production reach at least 120% of the average equivalent combined volume over the preceding six marketing seasons.
If this condition is met, the government can determine a withdrawal percentage using a separate calculation that considers estimated available resources, including average imports, and historical marketing volumes.
The withdrawal may not exceed 20% of estimated production.
Importantly, the publication of the order does not mean that 20% of Spain’s olive oil production has already been removed from the market.
The Directorate-General for Agricultural Production and Markets must establish the applicable percentage and the starting date through a subsequent resolution, scheduled for publication by mid-November.
If activated, the obligation will apply to producing olive oil mills. Operators will be able to choose which category of olive oil to withhold and must report the stored quantities through Spain’s olive oil market information system, SIMO.
The affected oil will generally remain outside the market until the following marketing season, subject to possible adjustments under the order.
Producers and industry see different risks
The proposed intervention has exposed a significant division within the Spanish olive oil sector.
Agricultural organisations ASAJA, COAG and UPA, together with Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de España, have called for the mechanism to be implemented.
In their statement of 14 October, they argued that falling prices at origin were threatening the economic viability of many olive-growing businesses. They regard temporary supply restrictions as a means of preventing further price deterioration.
Packaging companies and exporters have expressed a different position.
Industry associations ANIERAC and ASOLIVA oppose compulsory withdrawal, arguing that restricting available supply could increase costs, weaken competitiveness and affect Spain’s position in international markets.
They favour a longer-term strategy based on stimulating consumption, developing export markets and creating additional value throughout the supply chain.
Both perspectives reflect legitimate commercial interests, but their implications differ.
For growers, stabilising prices may help protect production margins. For processors, exporters and distributors, restricting supply can increase purchasing costs and complicate commercial planning.
The effects on consumers are less straightforward. A reduction in producer prices does not automatically lead to equivalent reductions at retail level, just as restricting supply does not necessarily produce a predictable increase in supermarket prices.
Transport, processing, packaging, commercial contracts, distribution margins and existing inventories all influence the final price.
Spain’s competition authority raises objections
The Spanish National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) has issued a critical assessment of the proposed regulation.
In its report published on 5 October 2026, the authority warned that compulsory withdrawal could restrict competition and negatively affect consumers.
Its concerns include higher prices, reduced product variety, possible consequences for quality and an uneven impact on different participants in the value chain.
The CNMC also called for a more comprehensive assessment of market conditions before intervention, including demand, international trade flows, producer profitability and the potential consequences for lower-income consumers.
It recommended greater precision in determining the withdrawal percentage, clearer treatment of different olive oil categories and adequate control mechanisms.
These objections do not establish that the measure will fail. They highlight the need to demonstrate that intervention is necessary, proportionate and capable of addressing an exceptional market imbalance.
The distinction matters.
A temporary supply restriction may relieve immediate price pressure without necessarily resolving underlying structural problems, including differences in production costs, bargaining power and the development of international demand.
What about olive oil quality?
Beyond the economic discussion, temporary storage raises a separate question concerning olive oil quality.
A larger harvest does not automatically mean better or poorer olive oil. Quality depends on factors including olive condition, harvesting, extraction, processing and storage.
Similarly, temporary withdrawal from the market does not in itself imply deterioration.
However, storage conditions become particularly important when substantial volumes must remain unsold for an extended period.
The International Olive Council’s storage guidance identifies exposure to oxygen, light and excessive heat among the principal factors that can accelerate deterioration.
Appropriate storage facilities, temperature management and measures to limit oxidation are therefore essential to preserving the original characteristics of the oil.
The Spanish order permits individual mills to decide which olive oil category they will withdraw.
This creates an additional consideration for the sector: whether the practical application of the measure will adequately account for differences in product category, storage capability and commercial value.
The quality implications cannot be determined from the legislation alone. They will depend on which oils are withdrawn, how they are stored and how long they remain outside the market.
A wider question for the Mediterranean olive oil economy
Spain’s decision has significance beyond its national borders.
As the world’s largest olive oil producer and a major exporter, developments in Spanish supply and pricing influence the wider European and international olive oil trade.
Importers, exporters and producers in other Mediterranean countries operate in markets where Spanish production volumes and price developments are important reference points.
Market intervention in Spain therefore deserves attention throughout the sector, even though its eventual effects on other countries remain uncertain.
There is also a longer-term question.
The olive oil industry must accommodate considerable variations in agricultural production while maintaining commercially sustainable operations, consumer accessibility and consistent product quality.
Managing these competing objectives requires more than responding to individual harvest forecasts.
What happens next?
The immediate development to monitor is the government’s forthcoming resolution establishing whether the conditions for intervention have been met and, if so, the percentage of olive oil to be withdrawn.
The ministry is also required to monitor the measure’s effects on market conditions. From the end of December 2026, revised production estimates and market developments may provide grounds for reducing the quantity withheld.
For now, the production increase remains a forecast, while the withdrawal mechanism is legally established but not yet operational.
Spain’s situation illustrates a central challenge in agricultural commodity markets: an abundant harvest can improve supply security while simultaneously exposing economic vulnerabilities among producers.
Whether temporary market intervention can reconcile these competing interests without creating additional problems will depend on its implementation and measurable effects.
The relevant indicators will not be production volume alone, but producer profitability, market demand, trade flows, consumer prices and the preservation of olive oil quality.
Sources and documentation
Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA), 1 October 2026. Initial olive oil production forecast for the 2026/2027 season, including regional production estimates.
Official production forecast
Spanish Official State Gazette (BOE), 30 October 2026. Order APA/1145/2026, establishing the marketing rules, activation criteria and possible withdrawal mechanism for the 2026/2027 olive oil season.
Full legal text, BOE-A-2026-22717
Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA), 30 October 2026. Announcement of the marketing order, opening stock figures and the ministry’s explanation of the intervention mechanism.
Official ministry announcement
Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC), 5 October 2026. Assessment of the proposed regulation, including competition, consumer and market risks. Report IPN/CNMC/035/26.
CNMC analysis and recommendations
ASAJA Sevilla, 14 October 2026. Joint position of ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de España calling for activation of the market regulation.
Agricultural organisations’ statement
ANIERAC and ASOLIVA, 8 October 2026. Joint industry position opposing compulsory withdrawal and advocating a longer-term market development strategy.
ANIERAC and ASOLIVA statement
International Olive Council (IOC). Best Practice Guidelines for the Storage of Olive Oils and Olive-Pomace Oils for Human Consumption, COI/BPS/Doc. No. 1/2018.
IOC Standards, Methods and Guides
Editorial note: This report reflects information available on 30 October 2026. Production figures are provisional, and the actual application of the Spanish market withdrawal mechanism remains subject to a subsequent government resolution.