Selected external articles from Olive Oil Times. Included for contextual awareness, not as editorial endorsement.
Olive production in Portugal is expected to decline by 20 percent in the 2025/26 crop year, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
INE estimates that olive grove productivity will reach 2,801 kilograms per hectare in 2025/26, down from 3,501 kilograms per hectare in the previous season and slightly below the five-year average.
The institute said high temperatures and strong spring winds caused flower drop and irregular fruit set in the southern Alentejo region, which accounts for most of the country’s olive oil production. In the northern Trás-os-Montes region, wet and cold weather also hindered fruit set.
“Subsequently, high temperatures and the absence of summer rainfall hampered olive development, a situation aggravated in the Trás-os-Montes region by fires that destroyed significant areas of traditional olive groves,” INE wrote.
Despite the lower yields, the institute said harvesting confirmed good fruit quality and regular ripening, with expectations of producing good-quality olive oils.
The INE assessment aligns with earlier forecasts from the national producer association Olivum, which anticipated a 20 percent decline in olive output and a ten percent drop in olive oil production.
“During the crucial months for olive oil production, we have encountered an extremely dry situation,” said Susana Sassetti, Olivum’s executive director. “Compared to the previous season, many olive groves have not been able to maintain normal fruit development.”
She added that the sector is facing a highly uneven harvest across regions and varieties, with an overall trend toward reduced production.
According to European Commission data, Portugal produced 21,300 metric tons of olive oil in the first month of the 2025/26 season and is expected to finish the crop year with total output of about 150,000 metric tons.
This would fall well below initial forecasts of 170,000 to 180,000 tons made in September, as well as the 177,000 metric tons produced in the previous crop year.
The production decline comes amid rising labor, fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide costs, as well as another year of low olive prices for farmers.
Portugal’s National Agricultural Confederation (CNA) described the situation as a “cause for great concern” for traditional producers, noting that olive prices have fallen to €0.55 per kilogram, down from €0.75 in 2024 and €1.10 in 2022.
“Besides the inexplicable drop in prices in a year of lower production, many producers are delivering their olives to the mills without knowing how much and when they will receive payment,” the CNA said, adding that some farmers have been told payments may not arrive until September next year.
The confederation also pointed to higher milling costs, including a temporary increase in value-added tax on milling services from six to 23 percent. The rate is expected to return to six percent in January 2026.
The CNA has urged the Portuguese government to guarantee “decent incomes for farmers” by adopting legislation prohibiting producers from being paid below their production costs and by establishing a mechanism to enforce compliance.