Tunisia’s 2025–2026 Olive Oil Harvest: A Structural Shift in the Mediterranean Market
Olive oil production across the Mediterranean remains uneven in the 2025–2026 season. Greece, Italy, Spain, and parts of Turkey are facing relatively low output, continuing a pattern of volatility driven by climate variability and cyclical bearing. Against this backdrop, Tunisia stands out with an estimated production of approximately 400,000 to 500,000 tons.
This development should not be interpreted as an anomaly or an unexpected disruption. On the contrary, it reflects long-term agricultural investments made years ago, when extensive new olive groves were planted with a clear strategic horizon. Tunisia is now reaching the maturation phase of those decisions.
The result is a visible shift in Mediterranean supply dynamics.
Tunisia’s role in the international olive oil market
Tunisian olive oil has historically been integrated into international markets primarily through bulk exports, especially to Italy and Spain. A significant share of this oil is blended, bottled, and redistributed both within and outside the European Union, in compliance with origin declaration requirements.
Under existing EU trade arrangements, approximately 56,000 tons of Tunisian olive oil may enter the European Union duty-free each year. Additional volumes can be imported subject to customs duties of approximately €1.24 per kilogram. Alongside these mechanisms, the Refinement for Re-export regime, also known as active refinement, allows non-EU olive oil to be imported for processing and subsequent re-export without duties, provided it does not enter free circulation within the EU.
These frameworks are well established. They are not new, nor were they designed with a single producing country in mind. However, higher Tunisian volumes inevitably bring their structural limitations into sharper focus.
Price stability and producer protection
A larger harvest naturally raises questions about price formation, particularly in a market where bulk exports remain dominant. In response, the Tunisian government has introduced a producer reference price of 10 dinars, reviewed on a weekly basis, with the aim of safeguarding minimum income levels for olive oil producers during the current season.
At the same time, Tunisia has requested an expansion of the duty-free quota to 100,000 tons for this year. The objective is clear: to mitigate downward price pressure and maintain economic sustainability at producer level during a year of high output.
These measures should be understood as income-stabilisation tools, not market distortion. They reflect a recognition that production capacity has advanced faster than the mechanisms that distribute value along the supply chain.
A European market alignment question
Within the European Union, discussions are ongoing about the implications of increased Tunisian volumes. The central issue is not the oil itself, but how additional supply interacts with an already complex pricing environment for European producers.
The current production volume underscores the need for better alignment between supply, trade policy and value distribution.
Without such alignment, increased availability risks translating into volatility rather than long-term market resilience. This is not a question of competition between producing countries, but of how Mediterranean olive oil markets are structured and governed.
Beyond volume: a structural perspective
It is important to underline that Tunisia’s increased output is not a quality issue, nor a sign of market imbalance caused by producers. It is the foreseeable outcome of agricultural strategy, executed consistently over time.
What we are witnessing in Tunisia is not a production anomaly, but the visible outcome of strategic planting decisions taken years ago, now reshaping Mediterranean supply dynamics.
The challenge ahead lies in adapting trade frameworks, pricing mechanisms, and value-chain distribution models to reflect this new reality, ensuring that producers across the Mediterranean can operate within a stable and economically viable market environment.
Kostas Liris
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